In a statement on X, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said his company would pay out positions on “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?” at the last trading price before his death. Mansour said that Kalshi doesn’t “list markets directly tied to death” and that its rules are designed to “prevent people from profiting from death.” In addition, Kalshi is refunding fees related to the market and reimbursing anyone who purchased shares after Khamenei’s death.
Some users have voiced anger at how the situation was handled, claiming that either Kalshi’s rules should have been communicated more clearly, or that its markets should have been more narrowly worded to avoid confusion. (“Will Khamenei resign?” for example.) Some are accusing Kalshi of trying to have it both ways by allowing users to bet on Khamenei being out of power, which they believe was never going to happen without his death, but refusing to pay out people’s bets in full to boost their bottom line.
While Mansour defended that having a market on Khamenei was important, he said that “having a market directly settling on someone’s death” was not allowed under US regulations. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi does not appear to have allowed a market for betting on when or if the US would launch another military strike on Iran.
Polymarket does not appear to have altered payouts on its own similar market, “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?” However, it’s unclear if this bet was available to users in the US at this time. Neither Kalshi nor Polymarket has responded to requests for clarification or additional comment.
