Analyst When Leader in e-commerce predicts a weak online holiday shopping season this year, with sales in the first three weeks of November expected to return to in-store shopping as the economic slowdown, inflation and COVID-19 impact It was almost the same as a year ago due to an increase in the number of people returning to Japan. -19 Pandemic. But on the surface, the Thanksgiving long weekend looks better than expected — although growth has definitely slowed this year after the boom during the pandemic.
Black Friday sales surpassed $9 billion for the first time yesterday, with online sales reaching $9.12 billion. Adobe AnalyticsThat’s a record number for the day, up 2.3% on sales a year ago and slightly higher than Adobe had predicted by the day. Adobe doesn’t split the volume in its report, so we’ll know if these numbers are just higher prices for items this year due to inflation, or if the higher numbers are the result of more purchases. It is difficult.
black friday is Both the e-commerce market and consumer confidence are key focal points for those assessing how they are faring during the most important and biggest shopping period of the year.
Salesforce publishes its own numbers based on 1.5 billion shoppersand online sales hit $8 billion in the U.S. and $40 billion worldwide, reaching 5 p.m. Displayed in beauty, and luxury handbags.
“Our data shows a very strong correlation between discount rates and online sales, as consumers hold the biggest and best deals,” he said. Rob Garf Vice President of Retail and GM of Salesforce.com. “Affordable consumers want value and price. And retailers responded to Black Friday with the highest discounts of the holiday season. ”
According to Adobe, toys, games and consumer electronics were the most popular categories for those looking for Black Friday deals and discounts.
The day before Thanksgiving also saw better-than-expected numbers. Thursday shoppers online he spent $5.29 billion. That’s a 2.9% increase for him from a year ago, beating Adobe’s original estimate of $5.1 billion for him. According to Salesforce, online sales on Thanksgiving rose 1% to $31 billion, especially in the US where he jumped 9% to $7.5 billion. Salesforce also says 78% of its sales traffic comes from mobile devices. The average order value is $105 worldwide, $120 in the US.
The rise of e-commerce has changed the face of “holiday shopping.” Not only has online shopping extended the days and hours people shop, it has also magnified and obscured the whole notion of seasonality in “holiday” shopping. The day after Thanksgiving, Black Friday meant the “first day” of holiday shopping.that I walked out the window many years ago We will start selling from Thursday.
Of course, I am also influenced by how people shop. Mobile devices are playing a bigger role than ever before. A record 48% of all e-commerce sales on Black Friday were made on smartphones (versus his 44% in 2021). Note: Thanksgiving is still a great day for mobile sales. One reason is that people aren’t in front of their computers. You are with friends and family and not at your desk. — and they aren’t in stores. On Thursday, about 55% of online sales yesterday were made on mobile devices, up 8.3% from a year ago.
Vivek Pandya, lead analyst for Adobe Digital Insights, said in a statement: “This year’s Thanksgiving marked an inflection point, highlighting just how much smartphones have driven real growth and improved these experiences.”
There is also an increase in the use of buy-and-pay services. This indicates both the growing popularity of the service as an alternative to credit and the need for consumers to take this route. On Black Friday, BNPL’s orders surged by 78% and he saw an 81% increase in sales compared to the same day a week ago. Notably, this is a big spike even compared to the previous day. At Thanksgiving, buy-now-pay-later saw a 1.3% increase in sales and a 0.7% increase in orders (which indicates that it’s being used for higher-ticket items). As long as this doesn’t result in unacceptable debt in the long run, all is well.
Adobe says it analyzes about 1 trillion visits to its US retail sites, tracking sales for about 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Its analysis includes anonymized data from some customers. It is used by about 85% of the largest US online retailers. About $77.74 billion has been spent online since November 1.
Salesforce and Adobe may differ in numbers and measurement parameters, but both are experiencing growth, so the bigger question is that the increased activity we see on Thanksgiving will be more than what we see today on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Whether it will be maintained through the rest of Cyber Week, including. , and the weekend in between — and indeed, the rest of the days and weeks leading up to the New Year. Overall, Adobe predicts Cyber Week will generate his $34.8 billion in online spending this year. $33.9 billion in sales.
This represents a turnaround as Cyber Week in 2021 was actually down 1.4% compared to 2020.
As a comparison point for these numbers, National Retail Federation Another analyst group forecasts 6% to 8% sales growth for the holiday season. digital commerce 360forecasts growth of 6.1% over the period.
Either way, sales may not hold up perfectly, or even in the next few days. This is only 1% higher than the 2021 figure.
The holiday shopping season is an important time to track for several reasons. First, this is traditionally the most profitable sales period for retailers and can make or break the success of the entire year. (This is Amazon’s Recent EarningsStocks fell nearly 20% as the company trimmed its sales guidance and warned of lower-than-expected holiday spending. )
Overall, the e-commerce holiday numbers could be the vanguard of the entire e-commerce market because of its huge importance.
But if growth is what we’re after, there are some signs that stormy waves are ahead. In the first three weeks of November, his online sales were $64.59 billion, up just 0.1% from 2021, according to Adobe research.
This comes against the backdrop of brick-and-mortar retailers increasingly aggressively trying to win back their audiences. The National Retail Federation of the United States 166.3 million consumers Shopping for a long weekend.
“While there is a lot of speculation about the impact of inflation on consumer behavior, our data suggests that a record number of shoppers took advantage of value pricing to buy into stores this Thanksgiving holiday weekend. “We are optimistic that retail sales will remain strong in the coming weeks and retailers are ready to serve consumers, but wants to buy a great product at the price they want to pay.”
We will post the latest sales information as soon as it becomes available.